MLB.com decided to get some long term projections for the first 10 years of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s career. The projections are pretty eye popping, as is their analysis.

So I hope you’ve read the article and returned to read our analysis of their analysis. The first thing that comes to mind is that even the “Standard projection” is pretty mind-blowing. To have a George Brett-like career for 10 years is nothing short of Hall-of-Fame worthy. Even the “Pessimistic projection” of a Ryan Zimmerman comp is pretty solid, although I think that most of us would be pretty disappointed if Vlad doesn’t go on to be as special of a player as most of us think he’ll be.




Obviously, Vlad’s ceiling is pretty untapped. Can he be an All-Time player in the conversation with guys like Lou Gehrig, Hank Greenberg or Eddit Matthews? Or will he be in the realm of the perennial All-Stars like Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera or Manny Ramirez?

Personally, I think that Vladdy will show flashes of the generational player he could be although much of his career will be in the “Manny Ramirez” category as one of the best players at his position at any given time. That said, I think he’ll have a year or two somewhere down the line that will look a little more like some of the “Pessimistic” projections.

My prediction after 10 seasons? .302/.389/.571 with 289 career home runs. What do you think Vlad’s career is going to look like?

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